Big Picture: First reference to the "R" word

In this CNBC article/clip from earlier today, financial trader makes the case that things aren't going the way Wall Street was hoping, and the economists might start using the "R" word.  The "R" word is "recession."  

I've been expecting the start of a recession for a while now for several reasons.  But what does this mean for you, a fairly average person out there working away in the U.S.?  We are probably heading into a recession right now, or will within a few months.  For everyday people out there, that means fewer jobs, fewer good jobs, layoffs, some business closings, and a time to tighten up your budget.  If your work is steady and not likely to be affected, cut back on unnecessary spending, put a little more cash in the bank in case of the proverbial rainy day, and slog it out.  Normally, we get a recession about once a decade, and it lasts a year or so.

But we aren't in "normal" times, by any means.  This CNBC republishing of a New York Times article from this past Satruday (4/17/2017) we learn that 89,000 retail workers have lost their jobs since October, and that many see this a a complete change of the retail industry we grew up with.  "Store closures, meanwhile, are on pace this year to eclipse the number of stores that closed in The Great Recession of 2008." 

What we are seeing right now is the collapse of traditional retail sales that was an integral part of the Industrial Age economy.  3,500 major chain stores have closed in the last couple years or are scheduled to close right now in 2017.  And that's while the economy is doing fairly well.  This is going to be big.  What's happening to bricks and mortar stores, from Sears on down, will do to the retail world what the 80's and 90's did to traditional manufacturing.  

Here's where this matters to you.  If any part of your job or business depends on people who sell physical items in actual physical stores, YOU WILL BE SERIOUSLY AFFECTED by this recession.  This will be big, it will affect nearly everyone, and it's gonna hurt.  Bike shop owners, skate shop owners, snowboard shop owners, action sports manufacturers, I'm talking to you.

But there is a silver lining.  This is the point where ecommerce (aka online shopping) is going to take over as the main form of buying most items in the U.S. and the civilized world.  If you work in that area, this recession could be amazing for you.  Recessions decimate millions of people who don't pay attention to long term trends and economics.  But recessions (and depressions, which IS possible now) also offer amazing opportunities to entrepreneurs.  Where you fall in this economic tipping point is up to you.