The Retail Apocalypse continues: April 29, 2017

OK, let me start by getting the obvious out of the way.  If you're going to publish a video online and call yourself Tyler Durden, get Edward Norton to do the voice over. 

That said, the number tagged above of 8,640 stores closing is an extrapolated number, an estimate.  But the real number is around 5,000 retail stores closed or closing soon, and growing.  This really is the Retail Apocalypse.  This video has a really annoying computer generated voice, but a lot of good facts in it.  If you're in business of any kind, you need to be aware of this. 

Here's the deal in a nutshell, since I know few, if any, of you will watch the video.  Remember when we used to watch MTV, or glance through Rolling Stone magazine and hear of new bands, or maybe Thrasher for the people reading this post.  When we found a cool new band in the 90's, we'd go buy the CD.  Major record labels, artists, and music magazines made a fortune.  And then some kid none of us had ever heard of wrote a software program called Napster, and it changed EVERYTHING in the music world?  That's what's happening to traditional, full price retail stores right now.  Each business has its own story, but a common theme is that the bricks and mortar stores and mall shops didn't take online sales and outlet malls seriously early on.  Now they're going down like a house of cards.  I wouldn't be surprised to see 10,000 to 20,000 total stores closed within a couple of years.  Many of the 1200 enclosed shopping malls, probably 400 to 700, will close in that time as well.  Personally, I think this will be enough to throw our teetering economy into a serious recession. 

But here's where I disagree with the producer(s) of the video above.  The Retail Apocalypse IS NOT the next "Big Short."  The Retail Apocalypse is a business revolution where one business model, online selling, is taking over the older model of having lots of physical stores.  The student loan mess, where loans have been bundled in things called SLAB's and sold to investors, is the next Big Short.  If the slow growth/retail collapse induced recession causes a much bigger default in student loans, THEN things will get nuts.  One recent article wrote that over 1 million student loans are in default right now. 

To me, this all feels like 1990, the start of the six year long "double-dip recession."  That rarely remembered period was a hair away from being a true depression.  Yes, I know you don't want to think about all this, but here's why you should.  Economic downturns are when the most new ideas spring up and when a lot of new businesses are started.  The early 1990's was when actual riders took over the BMX industry, skaters took over the skateboard industry, and snowboarding exploded in popularity, actually saving the lagging ski industry.  But now, those rider-owned companies ARE the old dinosaurs.  If you're one of them, what new ideas and new tech are YOU ignoring?  It's worth taking a look.